The first super cold winter in 60 years is here!Spinning clothing industry to usher in a peak season?

The National Climate Center expects a La Nina event to develop this winter.

Will it be a cold winter this year?

La Nina event refers to the cold water phenomenon in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean where the sea surface temperature anomaly occurs in a large range and the intensity and duration reach a certain condition.

In August 2020, most SST over the equatorial Middle East and Pacific was lower than that in the same period of the year. The monitoring index of SST in the key area (Nino3.4 area) was -0.6℃, which was 0.3℃ lower than that in July.

From September 1 to 20, the SST in Nino3.4 region fluctuated and decreased, and the monitoring index was below -0.5℃, indicating that the equatorial Middle East Pacific has entered La Nina state.

Since September, the subsurface cold water in the equatorial Middle East Pacific has been developing continuously, and the lower troposphere has been controlled by the anomalous eastern risk, which is conducive to the further development of the cold SST in the equatorial Middle East Pacific.

　　Fig. 1 The monthly evolution of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the SST index (℃) in the key area for monitoring sea surface temperature over the equatorial Middle East Pacific (NINO3.4)

　　Fig. 2 SST anomaly distribution in August 2020

  Based on the recent monitoring of ocean and atmospheric circulation in the equatorial Pacific and the prediction of climate models at home and abroad, it is predicted that the cold water over the equatorial Middle East Pacific will continue to develop in October, maintain La Nina state in autumn, and reach the peak in winter, forming a weak to medium intensity La Nina event.

　　Fig. 3 Composite figure of mean winter temperature anomaly of five La Nina events since 2000

Among them, under the influence of La Nina event in 2007/2008, China was hit by four low temperature rain and snow freezing weather processes on January 10 solstice and February 2, 2008.